Former Mayor's Insights on Navigating Trade Wars and Economic Uncertainty

Former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard joined News 8 on Monday evening to discuss the potential impact of trade wars and economic uncertainty on Indiana and globally. The U.S. agriculture industry is facing growing challenges as China imposed new tariffs on a range of U.S. goods, including chicken, wheat, and corn.

"I think it's going to make our markets tougher to penetrate," Ballard said. "Our farmers are going to have a more difficult time exporting their products, and they're already saying that right now. They're hardy people, but putting tariffs on their products makes it even harder for them to export overseas."

Indiana's soybeans are used in markets around the world, making them especially susceptible to the effects of the tariff war. Ballard pointed out that small manufacturers who rely on global exports will face similar challenges, potentially leading to layoffs if the situation continues.

"The longer this goes on, the worse it's going to be for farmers," he said. "If the president's comments on expecting a recession hold true, these trade wars will definitely contribute to it."

As someone who served as Indianapolis mayor during the 2008 financial crisis, Ballard noted that the current economic outlook carries similarities to the conditions that led to the Great Recession from December 2007 to June 2009. He predicted that the U.S. could experience a contraction, though the exact timeline remains unclear.

"The old definition of a recession was two consecutive quarters of actual contraction," he said. "Now it's kind of a slowdown below 2% over a few months. So, that's kind of how they define recession right now. I do think we're going to get there."

Ballard attributed the potential for a downturn to persistently high interest rates and the ongoing trade wars. He highlighted strategies that could help cities and states weather an economic slowdown, including government intervention through public works projects to stimulate the economy.

"When I was mayor, we used the Rebuild Indy funds, generated by the sale of the city's water and wastewater assets, to invest in infrastructure projects," Ballard said. "That kept a lot of engineers, architects, and construction companies in business during a time when the private sector was slumping."

Looking ahead, Ballard urged current leaders to prioritize job preservation during a potential recession. "Look at what you need to do to keep people working. How can you spend money to make sure the people who are going to be impacted the most are able to stay employed?"

As the trade war and fears of a recession continue to unfold, Indiana's farmers and manufacturers may face difficult times ahead. However, Ballard's advice could provide a roadmap for local governments aiming to mitigate the economic impact and protect jobs in their communities.