Record-Breaking Accuracy in 2024 Forecast

The National Hurricane Center had a record-breaking accuracy in its 2024 storm tracks, according to a preliminary forecast verification report.

The report details that 2024 had the least average distance errors for storm track forecasts from 120 hours out to 12 hours from landfall.

Further post-analysis reveals that the NHC forecast outperformed all of the individual models in 2024 and were more consistent, changing less from cycle to cycle, compared to the global models.

"NHC has released preliminary highlights of our forecast performance in the Atlantic basin for 2024's tropical cyclones. We are still in the process of finalizing analyses of the storms, and the full verification report will be available later this spring." — National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) February 24, 2025

The report noted that intensity forecasts were a challenge for 2024 and the average error was slightly higher than the past few years.

A more detailed final report, including forecasts for systems near the U.S. that had watches and warnings, is expected to come out in the spring.