Political Betting: Current Odds in the Presidential Race

Political polls have historically been the primary tool for gauging voter sentiment in elections. However, a new and unconventional method has gained traction: political betting. This approach provides an alternative perspective on potential election outcomes by allowing individuals to place wagers on candidates.

As of Monday afternoon, betting markets are slightly favoring former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the presidency. A popular betting site indicated that 55% of wagers were placed on Trump winning, while 45% favored Harris, with over $200 million already bet on this election cycle.

Interestingly, these odds reflect a notable shift from just a week prior when approximately 70% of bets were in favor of Trump. James Powel, a trending desk reporter with USA Today, suggested that several recent events may account for this change in momentum toward Harris.

"It's the Puerto Rican comments really landing from the Madison Square Garden rally," Powel stated. "And then our poll via the Des Moines Register showed Harris in the lead in Iowa."

The Trump campaign is currently navigating backlash from a controversial joke made by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, who likened Puerto Rico to a "floating island of garbage." While Powel believes this incident may have negatively impacted Trump's standing, he also emphasized that betting markets are not necessarily more accurate than traditional polls at predicting electoral outcomes.

"There are times where Harris was clearly ahead; there are times now that Trump is clearly ahead. But also these things are not perfect," Powel explained. "They are made by humans; they're influenced by betting odds. They missed twice before — notably in 2016 when Trump beat then-Secretary Clinton, who was a heavy favorite."

"So these things aren't perfect," he added. "They give us a sense of momentum. Even though Trump has had the lead before, the odds have swung back toward Harris recently. But they're not perfect; I just want to make that clear."

You can watch Scripps News' full interview with USA Today trending desk reporter James Powel for more insights.