Foggy Outlook: Consumer Confidence Fades Despite Robust Economy

U.S. consumer confidence fell in June, according to preliminary data from The Conference Board. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 93 in June, down from 98.4 in May.

"The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers' assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration," said Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist at The Conference Board.

Tariffs and inflation remain top of mind for consumers. While there was a slight uptick in concerns about geopolitics and social unrest amid economic worries, it wasn't a leading factor.

"Sometimes, how people feel doesn't translate to how they behave," said Phillip Powell, the executive director at the Indiana Business Research Center at Indiana University. "How people behave is typically a little bit more rational and long-term, and this is why we're seeing some resilience in the American economy right now."

Despite consumer sentiment declining, other economic indicators point to an economy that's stayed resilient. Hiring slowed in May, but the economy still added 139,000 jobs last month, and unemployment remains historically low at 4.2%.

"Unfortunately, I think for much of 2025, we're going to be navigating through fog," said Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan. "The hard data are distorted, and the soft data are unreliable, and it's very hard to know what the underlying pace of growth is."